Tariff inflation forecloses cuts while Hormuz coils energy and rates bite growth.
A session where the macro regime — sticky inflation, rising yields, and a geopolitical oil premium — did more to sort winners from losers than any single earnings report.
Energy and materials led a narrow session — only 5 of 12 sectors finished higher — as Aramco's CEO signaled that oil markets won't normalize without Iran resolution, lending structural weight to Hormuz-premium theses across heavy-crude names.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday the committee held that memory semiconductor strength was real but concentrated in hardware, and that software earnings risk remained acute in a 4.38% rate environment.
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.