Geopolitical fear rotates money from cyclicals into defensive yield and selective semis.
With eight of twelve sectors in the red and the curve steepening at the long end, equity investors holding cyclical or duration-sensitive growth names face a rate and demand environment that is compressing, not expanding, their margin of safety.
Only four of twelve sectors closed higher on March 13, with defensive names — Utilities, Communication Services, Consumer Staples — leading a tape that tilted decisively risk-off as geopolitical fears around Iran and persistent tariff pressure weighed on cyclicals and growth.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday's call — hold energy and commodity-input exposure, avoid long-duration growth, and do not add to mixed industrials until rate repricing stabilizes — was directionally confirmed today: Energy held a 0.31% gain on the session and a 2.43% five-session
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.