Grid emergency and a flattening curve hand the tape to defensives over semiconductors.
The session's defining split — defensives up, semiconductor equipment down hard — is not one-day noise; most of it sits on multi-week confirmed signals.
A PJM grid emergency covering 67 million people drove a broad defensive rotation: Healthcare led all sectors with a 2.91% gain, while semiconductor equipment names — KLAC, TER, ENTG, AMKR — suffered double-digit declines extending a confirmed multi-week rout.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday's position held that a jobs miss was rotating the tape from AI hardware into defensive duration plays and treated the semiconductor equipment rout as a multi-week cycle signal rather than single-session noise.
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.