Iran deal deflates war premium; semis absorb the freed duration.
When geopolitical risk reprices out of crude simultaneously with a three-basis-point drop in the ten-year, the capital that was earning a war premium in energy has to find a new home — and today it found semiconductors.
A Trump-Iran memorandum of understanding collapsed the Hormuz war premium on June 18, sending oil to multi-month lows and dragging Energy down 1.32% on the day and 6.01% over five sessions, while Technology rose 2.22% on rate relief as the long end of the Treasury curve fell 3 basis points.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday's position held AI-infrastructure hardware as the highest-quality rate-resilient expression and cautioned against adding to MU without cash-flow confirmation; today's session sharpened rather than contradicted that read.
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.