Sticky inflation and a ceasefire reprice leave only quality compounders standing.
When the Fed's rate-cut door closes and oil's geopolitical premium unwinds in the same session, the only equities that hold are those whose earnings power is structurally independent of both.
Core PCE holding at 3.3% and oil's steep retreat on Iran ceasefire optimism defined the session, pulling eight of twelve sectors lower and concentrating gains almost entirely in enterprise-software and AI-infrastructure names that posted multi-week breakouts.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday's position was that sticky inflation kills rate-cut optionality and reprices duration across every sector, with the committee holding a quality-and-flow tilt toward confirmed multi-week AI-infrastructure compounders and defense integrators while
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.