Supply shock and a steepening curve separate quality from everything else.
When yields rise, oil disruption fears mount, and only four sectors hold ground, the tape is charging a premium for cash-flow durability that most portfolios have not fully priced.
Energy led a narrow session — only 4 of 12 sectors finished higher — as Iran's oil-storage crisis and OPEC fractures drove supply-shock fears, while a sharp yield curve steepening of 6-8 basis points across the 2-to-10-year range weighed on rate-sensitive sectors from Utilities to Materials.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday the committee called defensives reclaiming the tape as earnings separated infrastructure from application, holding the AI infrastructure thesis at reduced confidence and refusing to add Technology until monetization clarified.
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.