Rising short-term yields and oil risk pushed money out of AI hardware and into energy
A 12bp rise in the 2Y yield in a single session, with only energy holding up, raises the cost of owning companies whose value depends on AI capex continuing, and lowers the cost of owning current cash flow.
Only 2 of 12 sectors finished higher, with 4.28 points between the best and worst: Energy rose 1.05% while Technology fell 3.23%, its losses led by optical and AI-infrastructure names such as LITE (-11.37%), CIEN (-11.36%) and COHR (-10.57%).
Since the last briefing
Yesterday falling yields lifted every sector, and the committee held a 55/45 Stagflation Squeeze lean, favoured cash-generating energy producers, and called AI-hardware leadership real but narrow.
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.