Oil and war fears sold nearly everything, including bonds and defensives, and spared only Energy
Rising yields on a risk-off day took away the usual bond cushion, so for holders of equities, diversification came down to owning real cash-flow durability rather than owning a sector label.
Only 1 of 12 sectors finished higher. Energy was the lone gainer at 0.49%, while Materials (-3.19%), Consumer Staples (-2.34%) and Healthcare (-1.94%) led a broad retreat on Iran war fears, higher oil and new multi-state lawsuits against the tariffs.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday we described a relief rally in high-beta names while bonds and defensive compounders were sold, and we leaned 60/40 toward the cost skeptics. The relief rally did not last.
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.